01
Enter current monthly revenue
Your average monthly revenue over the last 2–3 months. This is the baseline. Use a recent average rather than a single month to reduce noise.
Revenue Projection Calculator
Project 3–24 months of revenue from run rate, growth rate, and seasonality.
Updated Reviewed by Sajid Hussain· Editor
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Why trust this calculator
Last updated
June 9, 2026
Coverage
9 markets · 8 currencies
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Where is your revenue heading?
Project 3–24 months of revenue from your current run rate
The revenue projection calculator takes your current monthly revenue, an annual growth rate, and an optional seasonality adjustment to project revenue and gross profit across 3, 6, 12, or 24 months. It uses compound monthly growth rather than simple linear extrapolation, so the math matches how compounding actually works in a growing business.
**Compound growth vs linear extrapolation — why it matters.** Many operators multiply current revenue by a growth rate and assume a straight line. But growth compounds: if you grow 30% annually, each month you're growing from a slightly larger base. Over 12 months the end point is correct (× 1.30), but the cumulative revenue across all 12 months is different from a linear estimate, because months 6–12 generate more revenue as the base grows.
**Seasonality adjustment for peak and off-peak planning.** If you're projecting into Q4 for an ecommerce business, your average monthly revenue underestimates the peak. A 1.3× seasonality multiplier adjusts the projection up. Planning for a slow January? Use 0.8×. The adjustment applies uniformly across the period — model separate periods for a more granular seasonal plan.
**Annualised run rate — the investor's metric.** The annualised revenue (end-of-period monthly revenue × 12) is the ARR equivalent for non-subscription businesses. It answers "if the business stayed at this level for a year, what would annual revenue be?" — the standard way to describe momentum to investors and acquirers.
**Gross profit alongside revenue.** Revenue projections are useful; gross profit projections are more useful. Enter your gross margin and the calculator shows the cumulative profit available to cover overheads — helping you plan for whether the projected revenue actually funds the business.
Quick facts
- Growth model
- Compound monthly — not linear
- Periods
- 3 / 6 / 12 / 24 months
- Seasonality
- Adjustable multiplier (0.1–5×)
- Gross profit
- Cumulative, from your margin %
- Run rate
- Annualised revenue at end of period
- Currency
- Any currency, no sign-up
How it works
From current revenue to a compound-growth projection
Four inputs, a compound growth model, and a full 3–24 month projection.
02
Set your growth rate and period
Enter your expected annual growth rate (positive for growth, negative for decline) and choose a projection period of 3, 6, 12, or 24 months.
03
Adjust for seasonality if needed
Leave the seasonality multiplier at 1.0 for a neutral projection. Increase it for a seasonal peak (Q4 lift), decrease it for an off-peak period.
04
Read the projection — revenue, cumulative, run rate, and gross profit
See the end-of-period monthly revenue, total cumulative revenue across all months, the annualised run rate, and projected gross profit.
Steps to use the Revenue Projection Calculator: Enter current monthly revenue, Set your growth rate and period, Adjust for seasonality if needed, Read the projection — revenue, cumulative, run rate, and gross profit.
Formula
The compound growth projection equations
Standard compound interest math applied to revenue — no black boxes.
01
Monthly growth rate from annual
Monthly Growth Rate = (1 + Annual Growth Rate)^(1/12) − 1
Converts an annual growth rate to a monthly compound equivalent. A 30% annual rate = approximately 2.21% monthly. This is the correct compound conversion — dividing by 12 gives the wrong (lower) number.
02
Projected revenue at month M
Revenue[M] = Current Monthly Revenue × (1 + Monthly Growth Rate)^M × Seasonality Factor
Revenue at any future month M, compounded from the current run rate, adjusted for seasonality. M = 1 is next month; M = 12 is end of year.
03
Cumulative revenue
Cumulative = Current × Seasonality × (1+r) × ((1+r)^N − 1) ÷ r
Sum of projected revenue across all N months. This is the geometric series formula. When growth is zero, it simplifies to Current × Seasonality × N.
04
Annualised run rate
ARR = Projected Month Revenue (end of period) × 12
What annual revenue would look like if the business stayed at the end-of-period monthly rate. A standard metric for communicating business momentum.
05
Projected gross profit
Gross Profit = Cumulative Revenue × Gross Margin %
Gross profit available to cover overheads across the projection period. Based on your gross margin percentage, not net margin.
Worked example
A 12-month projection at 30% annual growth
See how compound monthly growth and seasonality shape a 12-month revenue forecast.
Scenario
A store generates $25,000.00/month and expects 30% annual revenue growth over the next 12 months with no seasonal adjustment. Gross margin is 35%.
1
Step 1 · Monthly growth rate
Annual growth = 30% → monthly rate = (1.30)^(1/12) − 1 ≈ $2.21% per month.
Monthly growth: $2.21%
2
Step 2 · End-of-period revenue
$25,000.00 × (1.0221)^12 × 1.0 = $25,000.00 × 1.30 = $32,500.00 at month 12.
Month 12 revenue: $32,500.00
3
Step 3 · Cumulative revenue
Sum of all 12 monthly revenues (compound growth path): approximately $346,900.00 total across the year.
Cumulative: $346,900.00
4
Step 4 · Annualised run rate and gross profit
ARR = $32,500.00 × 12 = $390,000.00. Gross profit = $346,900.00 × 35% ≈ $121,415.00.
ARR: $390,000.00 · Gross profit: $121,415.00
The takeaway
At 30% annual compound growth the business goes from $25,000.00/month to $32,500.00/month — a $30.00% lift — generating $346,900.00 in total revenue and $121,415.00 in gross profit over the year.
Industry benchmarks
Revenue growth rates in ecommerce
Growth benchmarks vary widely by business size and category. Early-stage brands grow faster but from a smaller base.
| Metric | Poor | Average | Good | Excellent |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Annual revenue growth rate (established brands, 1M+ revenue) Shopify Commerce Trends Report 2025 | < 10% | 10–30% | 30–60% | 60%+ |
Annual revenue growth rate (early-stage, under 1M revenue) Jungle Scout State of the Amazon Seller 2026 | < 30% | 30–80% | 80–150% | 150%+ |
Ecommerce industry average annual growth eMarketer Global Ecommerce Report 2025 | < 5% | 5–12% | 12–20% | 20%+ |
Q4 seasonality multiplier (ecommerce) Adobe Digital Economy Index Q4 2025 | 1.0–1.2 | 1.2–1.5 | 1.5–2.0 | 2.0+ |
Gross margin (ecommerce average) TrueProfit 5,000-Store Analysis 2026 | < 25% | 25–40% | 40–55% | 55%+ |
Why this calculator
Calcrux vs other revenue forecast tools
Spreadsheet models are manual and prone to formula errors. Generic online projectors use linear growth. This uses compound monthly growth with seasonality — the right model for ecommerce.
| Feature | Calcrux | Linear Online Calculator | Spreadsheet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Compound monthly growth model | Manual | ||
| Seasonality multiplier | Manual | ||
| Cumulative revenue across period | Rare | Manual | |
| Annualised run rate (ARR) | Manual | ||
| Gross profit projection | Manual | ||
| 3 / 6 / 12 / 24 month options | One period | Manual | |
| High / negative growth warnings | |||
| Free, no sign-up |
Common mistakes
Where revenue projections go wrong
Using linear growth instead of compound growth
Why it matters
Adding 2,500 a month (10% of 25,000) to get a straight line is linear growth. Real compound growth means each month you grow from a larger base — the numbers diverge significantly over 12–24 months.
Fix
Use the compound monthly growth formula: Revenue[M] = Current × (1 + monthly rate)^M. This calculator does it automatically.
Projecting from a single month instead of an average
Why it matters
A single strong month (Prime Day, Black Friday) or a weak one (January, post-holiday) gives a misleading baseline that skews the entire projection up or down.
Fix
Average your last 2–3 months of revenue as the baseline. For seasonal projections, use the seasonality multiplier to adjust for expected peaks rather than starting from a peak month.
Ignoring the difference between revenue and gross profit
Why it matters
A 350,000 revenue projection sounds excellent. If your gross margin is 35%, that's 122,500 in gross profit — with overheads of 80,000 per month, the business is still loss-making.
Fix
Always project gross profit alongside revenue. Enter your gross margin to see the profit available to cover overheads — that's the number that determines whether growth translates to profitability.
Treating the annual growth rate as monthly
Why it matters
Assuming 30% growth means 30% per month (a 12× annual multiplier!) is a common error. Correctly, 30% per year = 2.21% per month.
Fix
This calculator converts annual to monthly automatically using the compound formula. Enter your annual growth rate and the monthly conversion is handled for you.
Not accounting for seasonality in cumulative projections
Why it matters
A 12-month cumulative revenue projection that ignores Q4 lift underestimates the peak period significantly. For many ecommerce businesses, Q4 represents 30–40% of annual revenue.
Fix
Run separate projections for peak and off-peak periods with appropriate seasonality multipliers, then sum the cumulative revenue for a full-year estimate.
Tips
Getting the most from revenue projections
Run three scenarios, not one
Build a base case, a conservative case (50% of expected growth rate), and an optimistic case (150% of expected growth rate). The range is more useful for planning than a single number.
Ground growth rate in data
Your projected annual growth rate should be anchored to actual recent performance — last 3 or 6 months of month-over-month growth annualised. Aspirational rates without evidence make for misleading projections.
Use for cash flow planning
Cumulative revenue tells you approximately when cash will come in. Combine with a gross profit margin to estimate whether the business generates enough cash to fund inventory purchases for the next stocking cycle.
Re-project monthly
Actual monthly revenue will diverge from the projection. Update the baseline each month with actual numbers and reproject — the resulting adjustment tells you whether you're ahead or behind plan.
Pair with break-even analysis
Revenue projections are incomplete without break-even context. Use the Break-Even Point Calculator to check whether your projected revenue at each period covers fixed overhead at your contribution margin.
Quote ARR to investors
ARR (end-of-period monthly revenue × 12) is the standard metric investors and acquirers use to benchmark and value ecommerce businesses. Quote it correctly — it's not the same as last-year actual revenue.
Use cases
When to run a revenue projection
The Revenue Projection Calculator works across every stage of the workflow.
Ecommerce Founder / CEO
Build a 12 and 24-month revenue projection grounded in current run rate and recent growth rate to show a credible growth trajectory without over-promising.
Marketplace Seller / Amazon FBA Operator
Project 3-month cumulative revenue to estimate how much cash the business will generate, then use that to set an inventory budget for the next restock cycle.
DTC Brand Owner / CMO
Use the Q4 seasonality multiplier (1.3–1.5×) to project expected revenue during the peak period and size the inventory and ad budget accordingly.
Ecommerce Operations Manager
Generate the 3-month cumulative revenue projection at current growth rate, then set that as the team revenue target with the annualised run rate as the headline metric.
Business Analyst / Growth Lead
Run separate revenue projections for each channel at their respective growth rates, then compare cumulative revenue and gross profit to identify where to invest.
Ecommerce CFO / Finance Director
Use the 12-month cumulative and annualised run rate to show year-end trajectory, paired with gross profit projections for a clean revenue → gross profit bridge.
Glossary
Revenue projection vocabulary
Every important term you'll encounter in this calculator and the broader topic.
- Monthly growth rate
- The compound monthly equivalent of the annual growth rate, calculated as (1 + annual rate)^(1/12) − 1. A 30% annual rate converts to approximately 2.21% monthly.
- Cumulative revenue
- Total revenue generated across all months in the projection period, following the compound growth path. Not the same as current monthly revenue × number of months unless growth is zero.
- Annualised run rate (ARR)
- End-of-period monthly revenue extrapolated to 12 months (monthly × 12). Represents the implied annual revenue if the business stayed at the end-of-period monthly level indefinitely.
- Compound growth
- Growth where each period's starting point is the previous period's ending point. A 2.21% monthly compound growth rate produces exactly 30% annual growth, because each month you grow from a slightly larger base.
- Seasonality factor
- A multiplier applied to the projected revenue to account for predictable seasonal patterns. 1.0 = no adjustment; 1.3 = 30% above the baseline (e.g. Q4 peak); 0.8 = 20% below baseline (e.g. January dip).
- Gross profit projection
- Cumulative projected revenue multiplied by the gross margin percentage. Shows how much profit is available to cover operating expenses and generate net income over the projection period.
- Revenue baseline
- The current monthly revenue figure used as the starting point for all projections. Best calculated as an average of the last 2–3 months of actual revenue to reduce single-month noise.
Help & answers
Frequently asked questions
Everything you need to know about how the Revenue Projection Calculator works.
01How do you calculate revenue projections?
Revenue projections use compound monthly growth: Revenue[month M] = Current Monthly Revenue × (1 + monthly growth rate)^M × seasonality factor. The monthly growth rate is derived from the annual rate as (1 + annual rate)^(1/12) − 1. Sum all monthly projections for cumulative revenue. This calculator does all the math automatically — enter your current revenue and growth rate and read the result.
02What is the difference between linear and compound revenue growth?
Linear growth adds the same fixed amount every month (e.g. +2,500 per month). Compound growth multiplies by the same rate every month, so each month's starting point is larger than the last. Over 12+ months the difference is significant. A business growing at 30% annually is growing at 2.21% monthly (compound) — not 2.5% per month (linear/÷12). Always use compound growth for revenue projections.
03What is annualised run rate and how is it calculated?
Annualised run rate (ARR) is your end-of-period monthly revenue multiplied by 12. If your projected monthly revenue at month 12 is 32,500, the ARR is 390,000. It represents implied annual revenue if the business stayed at that monthly level. ARR is used by investors and acquirers to benchmark and value businesses — it's different from last year's actual revenue.
04How do I use the seasonality multiplier?
The seasonality multiplier adjusts the entire projection up or down to account for seasonal patterns. Set it to 1.0 for a neutral projection. Use 1.2–1.5 for Q4 peak projections, or 0.7–0.9 for off-peak January/February periods. For best results, run separate projections for peak and off-peak periods with the appropriate multiplier, then sum cumulative revenues for a full-year estimate.
05How accurate are revenue projections?
Revenue projections are estimates based on assumed growth rates — their accuracy depends entirely on how realistic those assumptions are. Short-term projections (3–6 months) with growth rates grounded in recent actual performance are reasonably reliable. 12–24 month projections carry higher uncertainty. Always run a base case, conservative case (50% of expected growth), and optimistic case (150% of expected growth) to understand the range of outcomes.
06How do I convert an annual growth rate to a monthly growth rate?
Use the compound formula: Monthly Growth Rate = (1 + Annual Growth Rate)^(1/12) − 1. For 30% annual growth: (1.30)^(1/12) − 1 = 1.02210 − 1 = 2.21% per month. Do not divide by 12 — that gives a slightly lower number that understates cumulative revenue. The compound formula correctly models how growth actually works.
07Why should I project gross profit alongside revenue?
Revenue projections tell you how much money flows in. Gross profit projections tell you how much of that money you keep after product costs. A 350,000 revenue projection at a 35% gross margin leaves 122,500 to cover overheads. Whether that covers your 80,000 per month in fixed costs determines whether projected growth is actually profitable. Always project both.
08What inputs do I need to create a revenue projection?
You need three things: current monthly revenue (use a 2–3 month average to reduce noise), an expected annual growth rate (anchor this to recent actual performance), and a projection period (3, 6, 12, or 24 months). Optional: add a seasonality multiplier for peak/off-peak adjustments and a gross margin percentage to see projected gross profit alongside revenue.
09What is a good annual revenue growth rate for ecommerce?
For established ecommerce brands (above 1M in annual revenue), 30–60% annual growth is considered high-performing. Early-stage brands (under 1M) typically need 80–150%+ to be on a strong trajectory. The overall ecommerce industry averages 12–20% annually per eMarketer data. Anchor your projection to recent actual performance rather than the benchmark alone.
10Can I use this calculator for declining revenue or negative growth?
Yes — enter a negative annual growth rate (e.g. -15%) to project a declining revenue trajectory. The calculator will show how far monthly revenue falls by the end of the period and what cumulative revenue will be. This is useful for planning around a winding-down product line, a deliberate category exit, or a seasonal off-peak period when you expect below-baseline revenue.
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Category
Ecommerce Seller Operations
Subcategory
financial profitability
Availability
Global · 9 markets
Price
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Topics
revenue projection calculatorrevenue forecastsales projectionecommerce revenue forecastrevenue growth calculatorsales forecast calculatormonthly revenue projectionbusiness revenue forecast
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